CLEVELAND, Ohio – The presidential race in Ohio is still firmly in toss-up territory, with less than a single percentage point separating Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden, according to a new poll of likely voters.
The Great Lakes Poll from Baldwin Wallace University, Ohio Northern University and Oakland University showed a neck-and-neck contest in Ohio, with a similarly close result in Pennsylvania. Wisconsin and Michigan leaned heavily in Biden’s favor.
The poll was conducted from Sept. 8-22 with a sample size of 1,011 self-identified likely voters in Ohio. It was conducted by Qualtrics using online panels and included quotas for age and gender and was weighted by gender, age, race and ethnicity and annual household income. The margin of error for Ohio is plus-or-minus 3.3 percentage points.
Polls have routinely shown a fairly close race in Ohio, which Trump won in 2016 by 8 percentage points.
According to the survey, Biden leads among registered voters 44.9% to Trump’s 44.3%. Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen received 1.9% and Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins received 0.4% support. Just more than 7% of voters said they were undecided.
The poll also shows the gender gap between candidates may have closed somewhat in the state. Men were split, with 45.3% backing Biden and 45.4% backing Trump. Biden performed slightly better with women at 44.4% with Trump at 43.3%. Among undecided voters, 5.7% were men while 8.8% were women.
Previous polling in the state has shown gender gaps, especially among women, as high as 10%.
While the number of undecided voters is predictably low with fewer than 50 days until the election – and only two weeks until early voting starts – both candidates do have some room to grow. Just more than 10% of Biden backers said they might change their mind while just more than 2% said they would probably change their mind. Nearly 13% of Trump voters said they might change their mind and just 1.1% said they would probably change their mind.
Both Biden and Trump remain relatively unpopular in Ohio. For Trump, 51.6% of voters said they had an unfavorable view of him compared to 43.8% who held favorable opinions.
Biden was slightly less unpopular, with 44.1% of voters holding a favorable opinion and 47.9% holding an unfavorable opinion. Interestingly, Biden did a lot better in the other Great Lakes states, with a net favorable rating in all three. Trump’s unfavorables were above 50% in each of the four states.
Republican Vice President Mike Pence was also slightly in the negative in terms of popularity, with 43.9% viewing him unfavorably and 43.3% having a favorable opinion. Biden’s running mate, Democratic Sen. Kamala Harris of California, did not fare any better, with 45.2% viewing her unfavorably and 40% reporting a favorable opinion.
Voters' unfavorable view of Trump extended to his job performance, with just more than 51% saying they disapproved of the president’s handling of his job and 47.7% saying they approved. Of those groups, only 28.5% said they strongly approved of Trump’s job performance compared with a little more than 40% who said they strongly disapproved.
The poll could be good news for Biden’s prospects. Ohio is not a must-win state for Biden, but it certainly is for Trump’s re-election chances.
However, the race has drastically shifted, even within the past few days, due to the death of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, setting up a nominating fight for the courts that has generally favored Republicans in prior elections.
Respondents from the three other crucial Great Lakes states – Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – also generally favored Biden in the poll. Biden led Wisconsin by 9 percentage points and Michigan by 8 percentage points. Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania is only 2.7 percentage points, indicating a tightening race from surveys earlier in the election.
Cleveland.com this week will publish a series of stories digging deeper into the findings of this poll. Find those stories, as well as stories from previous BW polls, at this link.
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September 24, 2020 at 06:00PM
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Poll of Ohio voters shows toss-up race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden - cleveland.com
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