It appears as though Michigan is in store for a full-fledged early June hot spell. The hot spell may last five days, which is a fairly long stretch of hot weather for this early in the summer.
Most of the model forecast data is showing 90 degree afternoons, plus or minus a few degrees, over most of Lower Michigan. This is an extended forecast, with the “hot” weather not kicking in until this weekend. Right now it looks like 90-degree afternoons through next Wednesday at least, and maybe even next Thursday.
Let’s start with a look at how the upper atmosphere is going to take on a “hot look” by this weekend.
Atmospheric flow forecast at 15,000 feet from Wednesday, June 2 to Wednesday, June 9. Red areas show where the atmosphere is expanded due to warmer than normal air.
What you are seeing is the forecasted expansion of the upper atmosphere due to warmer than normal air. When the upper atmosphere gets warmer than normal, the surface temperatures respond by warming also.
The extended forecasts show there is a strong chance of warmer than normal conditions up to at least the middle of June.
Temperature forecast for June 6 to June 10 (NOAA)
Temperature forecast for June 8 to June 14. (NOAA)
The dry soil will be a contributing factor to our surface temperatures warming above normal and heading toward 90 degrees. In fact, most of the time weather computer models and even us humans underestimate the surface temperatures during sunny, dry times.
So what can we expect for afternoon high temperatures? I like the European over the U.S. model called the GFS. The European seems to occasionally be a touch too warm way out in the future. But with the dry soil, the European Model makes sense. The U.S. model called the GFS is notoriously too cool.
I would call the start to the hot weather Saturday, when most cities will be in the upper-80s to 90 degrees.
High temperature forecast for Saturday, June 5, 2021
High temperature forecast for Tuesday, June 8, 2021
Next week through at least Wednesday should have afternoon temperatures between 90 degrees and 94 degrees. There may be a cold front moving in from the north late next week, and that would cool us down.
One thing to watch- if we don’t get a break in the dry spell, the soil will stay dry and heat up quickly. It could lead to a hot, droughty summer here in Michigan.
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June 01, 2021 at 11:24PM
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90-degree plus temperatures looking to build an early June hot spell - MLive.com
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