TOKYO—Now that Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, has said he plans to resign, the big question is: Who will take his place? And can the world’s third-largest economy manage the transition without upsetting the hard-won years of political and economic stability that Mr. Abe ushered in?
Most of the names floated as potential successors are unlikely to rock the political boat or stray far from Mr. Abe’s policies, but some could bring a change in style as they try to fill his big shoes.
In his resignation announcement, Mr. Abe, 65 years old, didn’t give a time frame for the transfer of power, but he favored a move soon before a possible resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic.
That leaves the ruling Liberal Democratic Party with the task of choosing a new leader, who would then become prime minister under Japan’s parliamentary system since the LDP controls a majority. Mr. Abe’s term as party leader had been set to expire in September 2021, and the new leader will be elected to fill out the remainder of the term.
When Mr. Abe took office at the end of 2012, Japan was in a period of political and economic turmoil. Seven prime ministers had ruled in seven years and the government was struggling to revive a long-stagnant economy further crippled by an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown in 2011.
Former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, pictured last year, has been critical of Mr. Abe and has made no secret of his desire for the prime ministership.
Photo: Ore Huiying/Bloomberg NewsMr. Abe rolled out an economic policy—dubbed Abenomics—that lifted markets and corporate profits. He later built a close rapport with President Trump and shored up a rocky relationship with China. President Xi Jinping had scheduled his first state visit to Japan before the pandemic delayed it.
Speculation on Japan’s next leader centers around a handful of LDP stalwarts, ranging in age from 57 to 79, most of them Abe loyalists with relatively low profiles.
Of those, the most prominent—and the top pick in recent opinion polls asking about a potential successor—is former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, 63. An outspoken politician viewed as abrasive by much of the party’s top brass, Mr. Ishiba has been critical of Mr. Abe and made no secret of his desire for the prime ministership. He nearly beat Mr. Abe for the top LDP role in 2012 and challenged the prime minister again in 2018 with less success.
Mr. Ishiba has spoken out against one of Mr. Abe’s signature economic measures—a super-easy monetary policy that has cheapened the yen and kept interest rates near zero or below—saying it only helped companies that could benefit from a favorable foreign-exchange rate.
“Exporters made money on the cheap yen and monetary easing, and they’re all having fun playing golf at Mr. Abe’s vacation home,” Mr. Ishiba said in an August 2018 interview with The Wall Street Journal.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, one of Mr. Abe’s most loyal deputies, is a possible successor to Mr. Abe.
Photo: Akio Kon/Bloomberg NewsMr. Ishiba champions measures that would shake up some of the more hidebound corners of Japan’s economy, such as a comprehensive revision of immigration laws that could let foreigners settle in the country longer term. Although Mr. Abe has also brought in more foreigners to alleviate Japan’s severe labor shortage, the premier favors measures that would let them stay temporarily.
Still, political analysts say Mr. Ishiba’s odds are reduced by his unpopularity among party lawmakers.
On the opposite side of the spectrum is Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, 71, one of Mr. Abe’s most loyal deputies and someone who has worked closely with the prime minister behind the scenes.
One initiative Mr. Suga helped spearhead was the expansion of visa categories for foreign workers—the measure that Mr. Ishiba criticizes as not having gone far enough.
Finance Minister Taro Aso told allies late Friday that he wouldn’t run, Kyodo News reported.
Photo: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty ImagesMr. Suga said he was won over to the idea in part by reading a book on the trials of Japan’s struggling communities.
“In all corners of the nation, rural areas can’t survive anymore without foreign workers,” Mr. Suga told the Journal in a September 2018 interview.
Some analysts think Mr. Suga might win the top spot merely because he is the least objectionable candidate. Since other choices are unpopular, “it appears the top pick is Suga,” wrote UBS economist Masamichi Adachi, in a note earlier this week as speculation swirled about Mr. Abe’s possible resignation.
Another Abe ally and oft-cited contender is former foreign minister and LDP policy chief Fumio Kishida, 63, who has also expressed his aspirations for the top job. He is close to Mr. Abe, though he has said that the government needed to provide more support to the middle class and small businesses and bridge the divide between rich and poor.
Other possible contenders include Defense Minister Taro Kono, 57, a fluent English speaker and frequent Twitter user, and Finance Minister Taro Aso, 79, a former prime minister and someone who has held his post since the beginning of Mr. Abe’s current government. However, Mr. Aso told allies late Friday that he wouldn’t run, Kyodo News reported.
Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of a former prime minister, is widely seen as a future leader of Japan but, at 39, is generally considered too young to run this time.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe departed a press conference in Tokyo after announcing his decision to resign on Friday.
Photo: franck robichon/pool/ShutterstockWrite to Phred Dvorak at phred.dvorak@wsj.com and Megumi Fujikawa at megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com
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